Daily Temperature Cycle |
Regional Deviation Charts |
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The regional deviation charts are based on recent hourly temperature observations
and long-term normal temperatures at 172 airport weather stations in 56 countries
worldwide. Here is an example showing global deviations from long-term
normal temperatures. To see more click |
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There appears to be an annual cycle in the global deviations,
with a minimum 3-month average of
0.25 degreees Fahrenheit = 0.14 degrees Celsius during December 8 to March 8,
and a maximum 3-month average of
1.36 degrees Fahrenheit = 0.76 degrees Celsius during March 8 to June 6.
The latter may be a manifestation of the "Spring Thing" --
that spring appears to be arriving earlier in the northern hemisphere. The hourly temperature deviation from normal for each station in a region is averaged for the previous two weeks. These are then averaged over all stations in a region. The global deviation is an average of all 172 stations without regard to region. For each region, the last two weeks' magenta "observed" curve corresponds to 14 days x 24 temperatures per day = 336 temperatures. The typical period of record is about 67 years of daily lows and highs, and the normal curve depends on the mean low and mean high of this record for each day. Thus, each airport's green "normal" curve corresponds to 14 days x 2 temperatures per day per year x 67 years = 1,876 temperatures. The global 2-week deviation, which is based on an average of 172 airports, thus depends on about 172 x 336 = 57,800 temperatures observed over the past two weeks, and about 172 x 1,876 = 322,700 historical temperatures, for a total of about 380,500 temperatures. For each region, the green curve averages the last 3 months, or 91 days, of the 2-week deviations. The oldest of the 91 days depends on temperatures for 14 days. The 3-month deviation therefore depends on temperatures for (91 - 1) + 14 = 104 days. Consequently, the 3-month global deviation depends on about (91 - 1 + 14) days / 14 days x 57,800 = 429,000 temperatures in the last 15 weeks, and (91 - 1 + 14) days / 14 days x 322,700 = 2,397,000 historical temperatures, for a total of about 2.8 million temperatures. The regional temperature deviation graphs demonstrate how the region's temperature is deviating from the long-term normal, as averaged over the representative airports for the region. The global deviation is the mean for all 172 airports worldwide. For global deviations listed by world region, click the following link: For a map of global deviations by world region, click the following link: For a discussion of how long fossil fuel will last and what that implies about ultimate global warming, click the following link: |
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